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6

Amoudi Bay

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 98

Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Colonial Downs 29/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 98 · 5f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2025 · OR 98 par29/08C5OR 98C5 @ Keeneland 16/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 101 · 5f110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 101 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 07/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 104 · 5f110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 104 par7/11C5OR 104C5 @ Oaklawn Park 19/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 106 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 106 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 04/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 104 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/01/2026 · OR 104 par4/01C5OR 104C5 @ Fair Grounds 29/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 97 · 5f110y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/01/2026 · OR 97 parC6 @ Fair Grounds 16/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 97 · 5f110y Yie 122 · below its mark16/03/2026 · OR 97 par16/03C6OR 97C5 @ Keeneland 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 105 · 5f110y Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 26/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 101 · 5f110y Fm 124 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 101 par26/04C6OR 101projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-26Churchill Downs?8th8th0
2026-04-03Keeneland?1st0th+1
2026-03-16Fair Grounds?2nd2nd0
2026-01-29Fair Grounds?1st0th+1
2026-01-04Oaklawn Park?9th8th+1
2025-12-19Oaklawn Park?8th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0819/1216/0326/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20255th6/168%50%-0.18
16/10/20258th33/10%36%+0.36
07/11/20253rd20/10%71%+0.71
19/12/20258th25/10%0%0.00
04/01/20269th25/10%27%+0.27
29/01/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
16/03/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12
03/04/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
26/04/20268th7/163%0%-0.63