Full Disclosure
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 100
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | +1 | ||
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2024 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 06/06/2024 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 10/11/2024 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 91% | +0.04 |
| 26/12/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/01/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |