Nobals
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 103
Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | -5th | +5 |
| 2025-10-04 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
| 2025-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/07/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 03/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 78% | -0.16 |
| 30/08/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |