3

Nothing Better

9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 104

Saratoga · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/10

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Monmouth Park 17/08/2024 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 109 · 5f110y Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2024 · OR 109 par17/08C5OR 109C5 @ Colonial Downs 07/09/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 104 · 5f110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/09/2024 · OR 104 parC1 @ Belmont At The Big A 05/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 104 · 6f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/10/2024 · OR 104 par5/10C1OR 104C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 03/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 109 · 6f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/05/2025 · OR 109 parC5 @ Monmouth Park 19/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 113 · 5f110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/07/2025 · OR 113 par19/07C5OR 113C5 @ Colonial Downs 09/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 109 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 109 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 103 · 6f Fm 121 · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 103 par2/11C6OR 103C5 @ Churchill Downs 27/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 107 · 5f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 107 parC5 @ Penn National 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 100 · 5f Fm 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 100 par18/06C5OR 100projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-18Penn National?1st0th+1
2025-11-27Churchill Downs?4th3rd+1
2025-11-02Belmont At The Big A?1st1st0
2025-08-09Colonial Downs?8th7th+1
2025-07-19Monmouth Park?2nd1st+1
2025-05-03Belmont At The Big A?9th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/083/052/1118/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength87%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20242nd10/1195%80%-0.15
07/09/20242nd11/486%86%+0.00
05/10/20242nd3/184%86%+0.02
03/05/20259th5/174%11%-0.63
19/07/20252nd5/493%83%-0.10
09/08/20258th10/382%0%-0.82
02/11/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
27/11/20254th5/174%67%-0.07
18/06/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06