4
Favorite Memory
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 108
Saratoga · Race 8 - Glens Falls Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 4f
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Lingfield | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Newmarket | 1 | 9th | 9th | −0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Salisbury | 3 | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-07-19 | Newmarket | 1 | 9th | 10th | −0 |
| 2025-06-27 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 11/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 27/06/2025 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 19/07/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 11% | -0.49 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 26/09/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |