7
Massarat
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 103
Saratoga · Race 8 - Glens Falls Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -5.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 14th | −5 |
| 2025-09-04 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-06-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2025-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 11th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 27/02/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 22/03/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 01/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 29/06/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |