5
Storm Miami
5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 105
Saratoga · Race 8 - Glens Falls Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 4f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: -3.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2025-11-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 43% | -0.51 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |