6
Survie
5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 109
Saratoga · Race 8 - Glens Falls Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 4f
#1
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
72%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Newmarket | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Kempton | 1 | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Lingfield | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 12th | 12th | +0 |
| 2025-09-07 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength4%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 28/06/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 07/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 04/10/2025 | 12th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 31/01/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 70% | -0.18 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |