2
Venencia
6yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 110
Saratoga · Race 8 - Glens Falls Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 4f
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-12-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-10-19 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 16/08/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 24/12/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 28/02/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |