4
Tiernanogue
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 99
Saratoga · Race 9 - Curlin S. Presented By Casamigos · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |