Big Bold And First
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 75
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-10-19 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 19/10/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 23/11/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 10/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |