1
Elgin Park
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength47%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 14/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |