Red Weaver
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/11
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 43% | -0.48 |
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/10/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |