6
Caught Speeding
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 89
Woodbine · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 05/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 26/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |