4
Forester's Fortune
9yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 95
Woodbine · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 01/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 21/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 23/11/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |