5
Lazio
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92
Woodbine · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/15
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-01-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength96%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 02/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |