2
Sprung Loose
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 93
Woodbine · Race 3 - Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/08/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 07/12/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |