4
Beach Cricket
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 74
Woodbine · Race 5 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 38% | -0.52 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 06/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 57% | -0.36 |