1
Bowman's Run
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 86
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength80%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 03/08/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 25/10/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 31/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |