3
Ninja Star
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 93
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-03-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength33%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 2/1 | 89% | 10% | -0.79 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |