Aterya
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 83
Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |