Esdaile
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 57
Yarmouth · Bodhi Solutions - Constructing Champions Handicap · 1m 3y
#5
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 7.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newmarket | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Yarmouth | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Yarmouth | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |