4

Guest House

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61

Yarmouth · Bodhi Solutions - Constructing Champions Handicap · 1m 3y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best form has come over C&D, getting off the mark in a similar event on return before bouncing back to finish close third of 4 here last time. Should go well in a slightly easier grade with Silvestre De Sousa taking over.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength92%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Yarmouth 22/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 6f3y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS22/0525 @ Nottingham 04/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 6f18y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS2 @ Ascot 12/07/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 7f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS12/0726 @ Yarmouth 06/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 58 · 7f3y Goo 133 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 58 par5 @ Yarmouth 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 57 · 1m3y GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 57 par30/045OR 574 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 62 · 1m2f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 62 · 1m Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 62 par19/065OR 625 @ Yarmouth 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 61 · 1m3y GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 61 par23/075OR 61projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Yarmouth53rd2nd+1
2026-06-19Newmarket57th6th+1
2026-05-16Newmarket44th2nd+2
2026-04-30Yarmouth51st0th+1
2025-10-06Yarmouth63rd3rd0
2025-07-12Ascot214th9th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/056/1019/0623/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength51%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/05/20258th66/10%13%+0.13
04/06/202510th250/10%10%+0.10
12/07/202514th200/10%0%0.00
06/10/20253rd11/271%75%+0.04
30/04/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
16/05/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
19/06/20267th10/382%33%-0.49
23/07/20263rd2/189%33%-0.56