3

Melting Snow

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 62

Yarmouth · Bodhi Solutions - Constructing Champions Handicap · 1m 3y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finished closer than previously when 2¼ lengths fourth at Beverley (1¼m) on handicap bow. Addition of first-time cheekpieces could help over a shorter trip, and the booking of Billy Loughnane suggests better is expected of this well-bred filly (yard has had tremendous success with her family).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS25/0444 @ Lingfield 12/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS12/0544 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS16/0646 @ Beverley 14/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m1f207y Goo 129 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 62 par14/076OR 62projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14Beverley64th4th0
2026-06-16Beverley46th4th+2
2026-05-12Lingfield45th3rd+2
2026-04-25Doncaster48th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0412/0516/0614/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength70%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20268th28/10%22%+0.22
12/05/20265th100/10%50%+0.50
16/06/20266th40/10%38%+0.38
14/07/20264th6/168%63%-0.06