2

Okiru

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 64

Yarmouth · Bodhi Solutions - Constructing Champions Handicap · 1m 3y

#4

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly exposed maiden. Went as close as he has at Chepstow (7f) on penultimate start. Back over 1m when just over a length behind a trio of subsequent winners at Doncaster latest. Similar performance may see him get off the mark under Tom Marquand.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 22/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f36y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS22/1254 @ Kempton 07/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 69 · 7f Sta 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/01/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Newcastle 19/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 69 · 7f14y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 69 par19/025OR 695 @ Lingfield 27/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 69 · 7f1y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Lingfield 14/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 68 · 7f1y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 68 par14/045OR 685 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 67 · 7f36y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 67 par6 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 65 · 7f219y Gd 132 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 65 par20/066OR 656 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 63 · 7f16y GF 133 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 64 · 7f213y GF 132 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 64 par9/076OR 64projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Doncaster64th4th0
2026-06-27Chepstow62nd2nd0
2026-06-20Redcar67th7th0
2026-05-18Wolverhampton55th4th+1
2026-04-30Yarmouth5+1
2026-04-14Lingfield56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1227/0320/069/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength31%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/12/20252nd6/168%89%+0.20
07/01/20265th7/282%43%-0.39
19/02/20262nd25/10%83%+0.83
27/03/20265th4/179%56%-0.23
14/04/20266th7/163%44%-0.19
18/05/20265th14/126%56%+0.29
20/06/20267th14/126%45%+0.19
27/06/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12
09/07/20264th22/10%50%+0.50