Big Alex Walmsley
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 60
Yarmouth · Bodhi Solutions - Commercial Fit-Out Challenge 'Confined' Handicap · 1m 2f 23y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Yarmouth | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lingfield | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Kempton | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Yarmouth | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-07-10 | Doncaster | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2024 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 10/07/2025 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 16/09/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 08/10/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 01/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |