1
Cuban Girl
4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 62
Yarmouth · Bodhi Solutions - Commercial Fit-Out Challenge 'Confined' Handicap · 1m 2f 23y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength66%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Southwell | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-08-29 | Sandown | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-06-29 | Ffos Las | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 24/05/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/06/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 29/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 29/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 09/10/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/04/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |