IvyArcIvyArc
5

Nuptown Girl

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 58

Yarmouth · Bodhi Solutions - Commercial Fit-Out Challenge 'Confined' Handicap · 1m 2f 23y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

67%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Didn't need to improve to finally get off the mark at Newmarket in June and having had excuses next time, she quickly bounced back to form in first-time cheekpieces when staying on for second over C&D 5 days ago. Can play a part again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength77%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 04/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 64 · 1m Sta 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 64 par4/024OR 643 @ Lingfield 12/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 64 · 1m2f Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 64 par4 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 64 · 1m3f23y Std 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 64 par4/034OR 643 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 62 · 1m4f14y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 62 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · below its mark21/04/2026 · OR 62 par21/046OR 626 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m2f37y Gd 135 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Newmarket 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 58 · 1m4f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 58 par26/065OR 585 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 58 · 1m4f Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Yarmouth 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 58 · 1m2f23y GF 133 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 58 par28/076OR 58projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-07-03Chepstow54th3rd+1
2026-06-26Newmarket51st0th+1
2026-06-05Bath64th4th0
2026-04-21Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-03-28Southwell33rd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0228/0326/0628/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/02/20266th10/147%55%+0.07
12/02/20262nd22/10%67%+0.67
04/03/20265th10/147%20%-0.27
28/03/20263rd13/266%60%-0.06
21/04/20265th6/168%20%-0.48
05/06/20264th15/261%63%+0.02
26/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
03/07/20264th5/287%25%-0.62
28/07/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07