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The Ubermensch

4yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 62

Yarmouth · Bodhi Solutions - Commercial Fit-Out Challenge 'Confined' Handicap · 1m 2f 23y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

29%

Place Prob

38%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had been shaping up well and he duly confirmed promise of his penultimate outing when narrowly opening his account over 11.5f here 4 weeks ago, doing the bare minimum once in front and value for extra. Only 2 lb higher now and big shout back down in trip with Billy Loughnane aboard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 11/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m Sta 142 · HIGHER CLASS11/0244 @ Wolverhampton 27/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 7f36y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Wolverhampton 06/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 60 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 60 par6/046OR 606 @ Yarmouth 11/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m3y Gd 135 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 62 · 1m2f Goo 132 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 62 par4/056OR 626 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 62 · 1m1f104y Std 132 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 61 · 1m3f197y GF 137 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 61 par5/066OR 616 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 60 · 1m2f42y Sta 156 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Yarmouth 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 60 · 1m3f104y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 60 par2/075OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02Yarmouth51st0th+1
2026-06-26Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-06-05Doncaster63rd3rd0
2026-05-18Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-05-04Windsor62nd2nd0
2026-04-11Yarmouth66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0211/045/062/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength73%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/02/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
27/02/20263rd66/10%60%+0.60
06/04/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02
11/04/20266th7/491%62%-0.29
04/05/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
18/05/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
05/06/20263rd2/189%60%-0.29
26/06/20262nd7/282%92%+0.10
02/07/20261st6/492%100%+0.08