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3

Dragon God

4yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 53

Yarmouth · Price Bailey LLP Norwich 'Confined' Handicap · 5f 42y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Headstrong type who bounced back to form when second of 6 in handicap at Chepstow (5f) in June. Not seen to best effect having met with trouble when third over same C&D 17 days ago and he's an interesting runner with booking of Tom Marquand an obvious plus.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Kempton 02/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 64 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 64 par2/036OR 646 @ Southwell 26/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 62 · 6f16y Std 132 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 59 · 5f10y Goo 129 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 59 par5/046OR 596 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 56 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Windsor 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 56 · 5f21y Goo 131 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 56 par7/056OR 566 @ Chepstow 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 56 · 6f16y GS 131 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 55 · 5f110y Goo 135 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 55 par4/066OR 556 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 53 · 5f16y GF 133 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 53 par5 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 54 · 5f16y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 54 par16/075OR 54projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Chepstow53rd2nd+1
2026-06-27Chepstow62nd2nd0
2026-06-04Wetherby65th5th0
2026-05-21Chepstow66th6th0
2026-05-07Windsor63rd3rd0
2026-04-25Leicester63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0325/044/0616/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/03/20265th40/10%60%+0.60
26/03/20268th25/10%13%+0.13
05/04/20269th12/137%33%-0.04
25/04/20263rd10/147%78%+0.30
07/05/20263rd11/486%80%-0.06
21/05/20266th3/184%55%-0.30
04/06/20265th11/271%50%-0.21
27/06/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
16/07/20263rd9/488%33%-0.55