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5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55

Yarmouth · Price Bailey LLP Norwich 'Confined' Handicap · 5f 42y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a losing run but gave hope he can buck that trend when third over 6f here in June. Only sixth in a better race next time but far from disgraced when fourth of 7 in handicap back here (1m) last month. Tongue strap goes on now starting out for new yard and the betting can guide.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 68 · 6f16y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 68 par20/025OR 685 @ Wolverhampton 03/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 67 · 6f20y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/03/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 16/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 65 · 6f20y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/03/2026 · OR 65 par16/035OR 655 @ Lingfield 25/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 65 · 6f1y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 63 · 6f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/04/2026 · OR 63 par27/045OR 636 @ Redcar 26/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 60 · 5f217y Goo 156 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 6f3y Sft 130 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 59 par10/066OR 595 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Yarmouth 02/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 57 · 1m3y GF 137 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 57 par2/076OR 57projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02Yarmouth64th4th0
2026-06-19Newmarket56th5th+1
2026-06-10Yarmouth63rd3rd0
2026-05-26Redcar64th4th0
2026-04-27Lingfield55th4th+1
2026-03-25Lingfield57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0225/0310/062/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength70%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/202610th18/15%18%+0.13
03/03/20266th10/147%38%-0.10
16/03/20264th11/142%50%+0.08
25/03/20267th14/126%45%+0.19
27/04/20265th5/287%0%-0.87
26/05/20264th13/266%73%+0.07
10/06/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
19/06/20266th12/137%67%+0.30
02/07/20264th9/276%50%-0.26