5
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4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 48
Yarmouth · Price Bailey LLP Norwich 'Confined' Handicap · 5f 42y
#6
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength61%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Yarmouth | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newmarket | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Southwell | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-06-27 | Yarmouth | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-04-18 | Chelmsford City | 2 | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2024 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/03/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 18/04/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/06/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 28/02/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 28/05/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |