7
Surprise Again
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 45
Yarmouth · Price Bailey LLP Norwich 'Confined' Handicap · 5f 42y
#7
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength55%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 9.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Nottingham | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Leicester | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-05-29 | Lingfield | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-04-07 | Kempton | 5 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2025-02-27 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2024-08-09 | Haydock | 3 | 10th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2024 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 27/02/2025 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/04/2025 | 14th | 400/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 22/09/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |