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3

Cape Toronada

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 59

Brighton · JenningsBet Over 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap · 5f 215y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

66%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 3-y-o who gained breakthrough victory over C&D in June and ran respectably on the back of a 6 lb rise when fourth at Windsor (6f) later that month. No reason why she won't be competitive again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 10/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS10/0745 @ Windsor 23/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Wolverhampton 04/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 6f20y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/1056 @ Wolverhampton 24/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 55 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark24/03/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 52 · 5f160y Gd 133 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 52 par4/056OR 526 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 52 · 6f12y Goo 122 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 53 · 5f215y Gd 133 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 53 par9/066OR 536 @ Windsor 22/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 59 · 6f12y GF 132 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 59 par22/066OR 59projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-22Windsor64th4th0
2026-06-09Brighton61st1st0
2026-05-18Windsor62nd2nd0
2026-05-04Bath64th4th0
2026-03-24Wolverhampton66th6th0
2025-10-04Wolverhampton512th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0724/039/0622/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength84%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/202511th125/10%0%0.00
23/08/20257th500/10%45%+0.45
04/10/202512th300/10%8%+0.08
24/03/20266th40/10%29%+0.29
04/05/20264th11/142%67%+0.25
18/05/20262nd5/287%91%+0.04
09/06/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
22/06/20264th9/488%70%-0.18