14:30 · Brighton

Sapporo Japanese Premium Lager Brighton Mile Challenge Handicap

7f 216yGoing TBCClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 813/1
Silca Bay silks

Mr Jeremy Mark Webb

4yo Gelding · 10-3

Cable Bay - Strictly Silca (Danehill Dancer)

Oliver Carmichael60%3/8−7lbEve Johnson Houghton70%
404141
8.0
Cheek pieces

Off the mark for the season at Goodwood in June and did well to also score in 6-runner contest at Newmarket 18 days ago, overcoming pace bias as he pulled clear with an improver. Looks to hold strong claims here.

Class Advantage

6/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above6/04 · mark par6/046/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below6/05 · mark par23/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par5/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par3/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par18/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par18/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 216y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 63%6/04Pos 14 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 14 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 70%23/05Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 67%3/07Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%18/07
Projected finish1st of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength80%
ExpectedActualTrend
8
2
OR 649/2
Play Me silks

Mr P And Mrs L Rowe And Mr John Turner

4yo Gelding · 9-0

Too Darn Hot - Initially (Dansili)

Donagh Murphy2/14−7lbJ R Boyle
234415
6.0

Epsom winner last summer who doubled his tally over this C&D in June, managing to overcome trouble in running. Raced closer to the pace than ideal when fifth of 8 at Epsom last time, so no surprise to see him bounce back here.

Class Advantage

31/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above31/10 · mark par31/1030/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/04 · mark par19/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/05 · mark par1/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above1/06 · mark par9/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/06 · mark par9/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par9/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 216y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 90%31/10Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 82%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 63%19/05Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 70%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%9/06Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 43%9/07
Projected finish2nd of 9
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength69%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
Value3
OR 7413/2
Newfangled silks

Berkeley Racing

5yo Gelding · 9-10

New Bay - Dangle (Desert Style)

Rob Hornby60%2/17J G Portman60%
751364
6.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Three-time winner last year, including over C&D in September, and also scored at Wolverhampton (9.5f) in April. Has continued in good heart since, fourth of 8 at Windsor 23 days ago, and he can give his running once more.

Class Advantage

14/10 · C4 · finish vs mark above14/10 · mark par14/1014/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above14/04 · mark par27/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/04 · mark par25/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/05 · mark par10/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par13/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par13/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 216y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 45%14/10Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%27/04Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 29%10/07Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 57%13/07
Projected finish3rd of 9
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength70%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
4
OR 8013/2
Sea Suite silks

Houghton And Lang

4yo Gelding · 10-2

Sea The Stars - Sweet Affection (Exceed And Excel)

Cieren Fallon80%1/5James Owen60%
341722
7.0
Visor

Doubled his tally at Yarmouth (7f) in May and soon bounced back from a lesser effort when runner-up over the same C&D last month. Beaten only by a progressive 3-y-o at Sandown (1m) 12 days ago, so he could be in the mix.

Class Advantage

26/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/04 · mark par26/0420/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above20/05 · mark par28/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above28/05 · mark par18/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par15/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/07 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par24/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength41%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 216y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 82%26/04Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 70%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%28/05Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 25%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 80%15/07Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 80%24/07
Projected finish4th of 9
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength53%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
5
OR 716/1
Tex silks

George Baker Racing International

5yo Gelding · 9-7

Dark Angel - Sudu Queen (Invincible Spirit)

P Cosgrave1/4George Baker70%
323019
4.0Going 8.0
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Returned from a break to open his account at Ascot (7f) last month. Was well backed 5 days later and caught the eye when ninth of 26 at Glorious Goodwood, never nearer making first start over 6f. Respected as he returns to further.

Class Advantage

7/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par7/089/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par16/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par27/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/05 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par29/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/07 · mark par29/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 216y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 75%7/08Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 88%Pos 3 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 3 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 67%16/05Pos 12 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 12 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 15%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%24/07Pos 9 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 9 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 68%29/07
Projected finish5th of 9
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength63%
ExpectedActualTrend
9
6
OR 6315/2
Giant silks

Mr S Bell

6yo Gelding · 8-13

Rajasinghe - Rebel Surge (Kodiac)

Harry Davies60%0/2Ian Williams
024238
4.0

It's now 18 runs since his last win but he's made the frame 4 times this summer, including when only just failing at Chester (7f) last month. However, found his run of good form coming to a halt at the same course (7.6f) 11 days ago.

Class Advantage

19/05 · C6 · finish vs mark below19/05 · mark par19/0522/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/06 · mark par2/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par10/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par11/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 216y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 10 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 0%19/05Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 90%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 63%2/07Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 86%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 75%11/07Pos 8 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 8 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 0%25/07
Projected finish6th of 9
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength35%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
8
OR 765/1
Northern Empire silks

TBT Racing

3yo Gelding · 9-5

Night Of Thunder - Against Rules (Aussie Rules)

Ashley Lewis70%0/1E Walker
210805
3.0

Confirmed promise of first 2 races when winning a 7f Lingfield novice in January. Struggled on first 3 starts in handicaps, but having been gelded, got back on track when fifth of 10 at Epsom (7f) 5 weeks ago. Task is now to build on latest effort.

Class Advantage

22/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a22/1217/01 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/04 · mark par8/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below8/05 · mark par27/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below27/05 · mark par1/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par1/07projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength43%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 216y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 91%22/12Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 14 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 14 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 0%3/04Pos 8 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 8 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 30%Pos 12 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 8%27/05Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 56%1/07
Projected finish7th of 9
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength33%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
7
OR 7528/1
Glen Nevis silks

Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum

3yo Gelding · 9-4

Blue Point - Achnaha (Haatef)

Jack Callan60%C Johnston
2439
4.0Going 8.0

Showed fair form in his qualifying runs, before not having the best of positions when ninth of 11 on handicap debut at Newmarket (7f) 25 days ago. Will need to get back on the up, though drops in grade and the return to 1m should suit.

Class Advantage

24/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a24/0425/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a25/0516/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a16/0611/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par11/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength34%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 216y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 75%24/04Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 67%25/05Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 75%16/06Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 20%11/07
Projected finish8th of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength15%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
9
OR 8050/1
Here I Bow silks

Blue Chip Bloodstock

3yo Filly · 9-9

Bow Creek - So Like Your Moves (Rio De La Plata)

Jonny Peate60%Oli Rix
665270
3.0Class ↓3

Fairly useful 7f winner when trained in France last year. However, has finished down the field in 2 handicaps for current yard this season, the latest at Windsor (1m) in May. Has had a breathing operation since.

Class Advantage

16/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/075/08 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a9/09 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a6/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a30/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below30/04 · mark par11/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below11/05 · mark par11/05projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength43%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 216y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 38%16/07Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 17%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 20%9/09Pos 2 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 14%30/04Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 9%11/05
Projected finish9th of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength28%
ExpectedActualTrend