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2

Havana Jag

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 59

Brighton · JenningsBet Over 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap · 5f 215y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden but posted best effort yet when second at Newbury (5f) on penultimate start. Ran to a similar level despite being a little tight for room when third at Yarmouth (6f) since and she's one to consider from the same mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 13/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 65 · 5f21y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 65 par13/125OR 656 @ Wolverhampton 30/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 64 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark30/12/2025 · OR 64 par5 @ Chelmsford City 08/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 62 · 6f Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/01/2026 · OR 62 par8/015OR 626 @ Lingfield 07/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 62 · 5f6y Std 132 · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Lingfield 25/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 61 · 5f6y Std 133 · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 61 par25/026OR 616 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 60 · 5f Std 133 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Brighton 22/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 59 · 5f60y Goo 130 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 59 par22/066OR 595 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 59 · 5f34y GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Yarmouth 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 59 · 6f3y GF 131 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 59 par23/076OR 59projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Yarmouth63rd3rd0
2026-07-02Newbury52nd1st+1
2026-06-22Brighton64th4th0
2026-03-12Newcastle64th4th0
2026-02-25Lingfield64th4th0
2026-02-07Lingfield63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/127/0222/0623/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/12/20253rd4/179%78%-0.01
30/12/20254th5/174%67%-0.07
08/01/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
07/02/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
25/02/20264th3/184%40%-0.44
12/03/20264th8/158%40%-0.18
22/06/20264th12/137%40%+0.03
02/07/20262nd28/10%86%+0.86
23/07/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15