IvyArcIvyArc
1

Love Alive

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 61

Brighton · JenningsBet Over 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap · 5f 215y

#5

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark from a 7 lb higher mark at Wolverhampton (5f) in February and posted one of her better efforts since on debut for new yard when third at Thirsk (6f) 12 days ago. Set plenty to do on that occasion and better showing anticipated here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength65%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 30/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 74 · 5f Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 74 par30/085OR 744 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 71 · 6f16y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Wolverhampton 03/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 68 · 5f21y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/02/2026 · OR 68 par3/025OR 685 @ Southwell 28/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 69 · 4f214y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 69 · 5f21y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 69 par13/035OR 695 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 66 par8/065OR 665 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 65 · 5f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Thirsk 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 62 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 62 par24/075OR 62projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Thirsk53rd2nd+1
2026-06-25Newcastle511th10th+1
2026-06-08Leicester53rd2nd+1
2026-05-25Redcar56th5th+1
2026-03-13Wolverhampton59th8th+1
2026-02-28Southwell55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0828/028/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength37%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/08/20256th16/116%17%+0.01
13/01/20267th20/10%45%+0.45
03/02/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
28/02/20265th5/174%33%-0.40
13/03/20269th14/126%0%-0.26
25/05/20266th14/126%29%+0.02
08/06/20263rd18/15%60%+0.55
25/06/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
24/07/20263rd18/15%71%+0.66