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4

Mister Moet

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 58

Brighton · JenningsBet Over 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap · 5f 215y

#4

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner on the all-weather at Lingfield earlier in the season. Exploits mixed more recently but did run respectably when fourth back on all-weather at Wolverhampton (7f) 2 weeks ago. Needs to back that up back on turf.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 07/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 58 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 58 par7/026OR 586 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 56 · 6f1y Std 127 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 56 par5 @ Lingfield 28/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 58 · 6f1y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 58 par28/025OR 586 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 58 · 5f Std 131 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Lingfield 27/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 59 · 5f6y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 59 par27/035OR 594 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 59 · 6f1y Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 60 · 5f143y GF 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 60 par9/075OR 606 @ Lingfield 15/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 60 · 4f217y GF 135 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 7f36y Std 134 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 59 par21/076OR 59projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-07-15Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-07-09Doncaster56th5th+1
2026-04-03Lingfield412th10th+2
2026-03-27Lingfield51st0th+1
2026-03-12Newcastle62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0212/039/0721/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/02/20264th8/158%25%-0.33
21/02/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
28/02/20268th14/126%13%-0.14
12/03/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14
27/03/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
03/04/202612th28/10%0%0.00
09/07/20266th16/116%44%+0.29
15/07/20262nd6/492%50%-0.42
21/07/20264th18/15%67%+0.61