3
First Encounter
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 45
Brighton · JenningsBet In Deal Classified Stakes · 7f 216y
#7
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 30/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 30/03/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 02/06/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 18/07/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |