5
River Wharfe
8yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 50
Brighton · JenningsBet In Deal Classified Stakes · 7f 216y
#1
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Nottingham | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Southwell | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 23/02/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 17/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 06/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 28/04/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |
| 25/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 07/07/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |