7
Rovinia
4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 50
Brighton · JenningsBet In Deal Classified Stakes · 7f 216y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Brighton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Bath | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Bath | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Salisbury | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 02/12/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 26/05/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |