6
Northern Empire
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 76
Brighton · Sapporo Japanese Premium Lager Brighton Mile Challenge Handicap · 7f 216y
#8
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kempton | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ascot | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Newcastle | 2 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
| 2026-01-17 | Lingfield | 2 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-12-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 22/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 91% | +0.04 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/04/2026 | 14th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 08/05/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 30% | -0.46 |
| 27/05/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |