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4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 64

Brighton · Sapporo Japanese Premium Lager Brighton Mile Challenge Handicap · 7f 216y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Epsom winner last summer who doubled his tally over this C&D in June, managing to overcome trouble in running. Raced closer to the pace than ideal when fifth of 8 at Epsom last time, so no surprise to see him bounce back here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Epsom Downs 25/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 61 · 1m113y Goo 121 · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 61 par25/085OR 615 @ Epsom Downs 11/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 61 · 1m113y Sft 121 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 61 par5 @ Brighton 29/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 62 · 7f216y Goo 123 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 62 par29/095OR 625 @ Newmarket 31/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 61 · 1m Gd 123 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 61 par6 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 63 · 1m1y Std 133 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 63 par30/046OR 636 @ Lingfield 19/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 63 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Lingfield 01/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 62 · 1m1y Std 132 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 62 par1/066OR 625 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 62 · 7f216y Gd 127 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Epsom Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m113y GF 133 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 64 par9/075OR 64projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Epsom Downs55th6th−1
2026-06-09Brighton51st2nd−1
2026-06-01Lingfield64th6th−2
2026-05-19Lingfield64th6th−2
2026-04-30Lingfield63rd5th−2
2025-10-31Newmarket52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0831/101/069/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength69%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20253rd11/142%60%+0.18
11/09/20252nd11/271%80%+0.09
29/09/20254th12/137%67%+0.30
31/10/20252nd14/126%90%+0.64
30/04/20263rd8/158%82%+0.24
19/05/20264th5/174%63%-0.11
01/06/20264th11/271%70%-0.01
09/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
09/07/20265th9/276%43%-0.33