1
Silca Bay
4yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 81
Brighton · Sapporo Japanese Premium Lager Brighton Mile Challenge Handicap · 7f 216y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
35%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Goodwood | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kempton | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength80%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 17/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 06/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 06/05/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 70% | +0.28 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |