5
Tex
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 71
Brighton · Sapporo Japanese Premium Lager Brighton Mile Challenge Handicap · 7f 216y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kempton | 5 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Leicester | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-07 | Nottingham | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength63%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 02/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 17/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 27/05/2026 | 12th | 13/2 | 66% | 15% | -0.50 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 29/07/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 68% | -0.00 |