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Annexation

10yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 58

Brighton · Monty Bennetts 18th Birthday Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who was well supported and bounced back to form when second in a C&D handicap in June. Raced freely with little pace on when last of 7 back here 4 weeks ago (finished lame) but he appeals as the type to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 29/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m2f Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/01/2026 · OR 70 par29/015OR 705 @ Chelmsford City 08/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 68 · 1m2f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Chelmsford City 21/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 66 · 1m2f Std 152 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 66 par21/025OR 665 @ Kempton 18/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m2f219y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/03/2026 · OR 64 par4 @ Wolverhampton 30/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m1f104y Std 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 62 par30/034OR 626 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 61 · 1m GS 133 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Bath 26/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 59 · 1m2f37y Fm 129 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 59 par26/056OR 596 @ Brighton 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 58 · 1m1f207y GF 133 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Brighton 07/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 58 · 1m1f207y GF 128 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 58 par7/076OR 58projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-07Brighton67th7th0
2026-06-30Brighton62nd2nd0
2026-05-26Bath65th5th0
2026-04-17Bath64th4th0
2026-03-30Wolverhampton44th2nd+2
2026-03-18Kempton55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0118/0326/057/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/01/20265th33/10%50%+0.50
08/02/20265th11/142%20%-0.22
21/02/20266th17/255%0%-0.55
18/03/20265th25/10%43%+0.43
30/03/20264th80/10%73%+0.73
17/04/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
26/05/20265th6/492%50%-0.42
30/06/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02
07/07/20267th3/184%0%-0.84