Port Darwin
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 60
Brighton · Monty Bennetts 18th Birthday Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ripon | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Kempton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 14% | -0.74 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |