3

West Hill Rosie

4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 53

Brighton · Monty Bennetts 18th Birthday Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well held in a bumper/3 starts in novice/maidens and she failed to improve for switch to handicaps when down the field in a C&D contest 45 days ago. Needs to find some improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 8.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wincanton 25/02/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 1m7f50y Goo 156 · HIGHER CLASS25/0254 @ Kempton 01/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 1m Sta 135 · HIGHER CLASS1/0444 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS27/0444 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m2f37y Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS22/0546 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 55 · 1m1f207y GF 138 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 55 par21/066OR 55projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-21Brighton63rd3rd0
2026-05-22Bath45th3rd+2
2026-04-27Lingfield410th8th+2
2026-04-01Kempton411th9th+2
2026-02-25Wincanton514th13th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/021/0427/0422/0521/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength45%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/02/202614th25/10%0%0.00
01/04/202611th300/10%17%+0.17
27/04/202610th300/10%18%+0.18
22/05/20265th300/10%33%+0.33
21/06/20263rd33/10%33%+0.33