4
Berning Hot
4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 55
Brighton · JenningsBet 'We Love Brighton Racecourse' 'Confined' Handicap · 6f 210y
#2
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Sandown | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Beverley | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kempton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Southwell | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Kempton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Kempton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 14/01/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 28/01/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 04/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 23/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |