1
Redredrobin
9yo Mare · 9-12 · OR 59
Brighton · JenningsBet 'We Love Brighton Racecourse' 'Confined' Handicap · 6f 210y
#6
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Ffos Las | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Bath | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-07-10 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-06-15 | Salisbury | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-06-07 | Chepstow | 4 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 07/05/2025 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 24/05/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 29% | +0.23 |
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 15/06/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 10/07/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 29/05/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 14/07/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |